March Madness is always full of surprises, like Farleigh Dickinson defeating Purdue to become the second No. 16 seed to topple a No. 1 seed.
Or Princeton beating No. 2 Arizona, marking the third straight year that a No. 15 seed has won a first-round matchup.
It really is crazy!
But March Madness isn’t just relegated to college basketball. There’s a lot of craziness going on in fantasy baseball drafts.
The madness begins with Michael Harris, who was the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year after hitting 19 home runs with 64 RBI, 75 runs scored, 20 stolen bases and a .297/.339/.514 slash line. in 114 games for the Braves.
With a stat line like that, there’s bound to be excitement, right?
Well, maybe too much emotion.
According to Fantasy Alarm, Harris’ average draft position is 37.87, but there are sites that have their ADP as high as 24.8 (Underdog Fantasy) or 26.1 (RealTime Fantasy). He is at 33.3 on Yahoo.
That means that, in some cases, Harris is being drafted as a top 10 outfielder or top 25 overall.
That’s a steep price for a gamer who has played just 114 games. There’s no discussing the tools he brings to the table (and he really does bring a complete tool bag), but there are concerns that make Roto Rage believe that Harris will be very good, but ultimately won’t live up to that lofty status. draft.
Among players with a minimum of 400 plate appearances, Harris’ 41.7 percent chase rate (swings to pitches outside the strike zone) was the 12th-worst in the majors. That helped his 4.8 percent walk rate, which was 18th worst in the league, and his 24.3 percent strikeout rate (23rd worst in the National League).
Harris hit .297, but his too-high .361 BABIP indicates luck was on his side, and it’s hard to believe that number is tenable, especially when his expected batting average (.268) was nearly 30 points lower than his true average and incredible ground ball rate of 56.2 was the fourth-highest in the majors.
Oh, his expected slugging percentage (.460) was more than 50 points lower than his actual slugging percentage of .514. Those numbers scream one thing: regression.
What about Harris’ struggles against left-handed pitching?
In 135 plate appearances against lefties last season, he hit .238 with 13 runs, 41 strikeouts (30.4 percent strikeout rate), a .649 OPS and just seven walks.
He also had a .337 BABIP against lefties. That’s problematic.
The problem with Harris isn’t his potential or his talent, it’s his current price. It is too high. To get a good return on selecting him as a top 25 player, he has to duplicate his 2022 success (and then some), and that’s no easy task.
There are too many red flags to pay a premium price for an inexperienced player whose numbers are pointing to regression.
Roto Rage would rather target more proven outfielders, like Kyle Schwarber (39.69), Randy Arozarena (47.84) and Cedric Mullins (51.64).
Other gardeners to watch out for include:
Teoscar Hernandez (76.31) moves from hitter-friendly Toronto to pitcher’s paradise Seattle.
That’s not something fantasy managers should count as good fortune.
Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds (77.31) is a very good player in a bad situation. He just doesn’t have enough support in the Pirates’ lineup to give fantasy owners the numbers he’s capable of.
It’ll be good, but it’s unlikely to be really great… unless they finally trade it off.
The Mets’ Starling Marte (92.29) is a frequently injured 34-year-old with declining sprint velocity who had offseason surgery and has missed 30 or more games in all but one season. since 2016. Do the math.
Washington’s Joey Meneses (182.71) has the kind of Frank Schwindel (2021 Cubs-esque) vibes: a career minor leaguer who got a chance to play on a team going nowhere and became into a fantasy hero at the end of the season.
He has a powerful swing, but the small sample size plus his .371 BABIP raises questions.
Cleveland’s Oscar González (188.23) hit .296 with 11 home runs, 43 RBIs, 39 runs scored and a .789 OPS in 91 games.
It was a solid debut, but his 3.4 percent walk rate was in the bottom 1 percent in the league (as was his 48.3 percent chase rate) and his .345 BABIP is a good indication of his that a regression is coming.
gardeners
- Ronald Acuna Jr.=Atl
- Aaron Judge = NYY
- Julio Rodriguez=Mar
- Juan Soto=SD
- Kyle Tucker=Hou
- Mookie Betts=LAD
- Mike Trout = LAA
- Yordan Alvarez = Hou
- Fernando Tatis Jr.=SD
- Luis Roberto = CWS
- Randy Arozarena=TB
- Kyle Schwarber = fi
- Cedric Mullins=Bal
- Adolis Garcia=Tex
- Eloy Jimenez=CWS
- Daulton Varsho=Tor
- Michael Harris II=Atl
- Corbin Caroll = Ari
- George Springer=Tor
- Byron Buxton=Min
- Bryan Reynolds = hole
- Starling Mars = NYM
- Steven Kwan = Cle
- Tyler O’Neill=StL
- Teoscar Hernandez=Mar
- Seiya Suzuku=ChC
- Antonio Santander = Bal
- Kris Bryant=Colonel
- Nick Castellanos=Phi
- Christian Yelich=Thousand
- Giancarlo Stanton=New York
- Jake McCarthy=Ari
- Ian Happ=ChC
- Taylor Ward = LAA
- Andrew Vaughn=CWS
- Brandon Nimmo = NYM
- Mitch Haniger = SF
- Hunter Renfroe = LAA
- MJ Melendez=KC
- Jeff McNeil = NYM
- Lars Nootbaar=StL
- Jordan Walker = StL
- Alex Executioner=Bos
- Masataka Yoshida=Bos
- Cody Bellinger=ChC
- Oscar Gonzalez = Cle
- Riley Greene=Det
- Ramon Laureano=Roble
- Andrés Benintendi=CWS
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. = Ari
- Wil Myers = Cin
- Bryan De La Cruz = Mia
- Seth Brown = Oak
- Jarred Kelenic=Mar
- Esteury Ruiz=Oak
- White Merrifield = Tor
- Jorge Soler=Mine
- Adam Duvall=Bos
- Austin Meadows=Det
- Michael Conforto = SF
- Alex Kiriloff=Min.
- Garrett Mitchell = thousand
- Jesse Winker = thousand
- Joc Pederson=SF
- Trey Mancini=ChC
- Brendan Donovan=StL
- Austin Hays=Bal
- Jake Fraley = Cin
- Brandon Marsh = Phi
- Chris Taylor = boy
- Charlie Blackmon=Colonel
- Avisaíl García = Mia
- Max Kepler=Min.
- Marcell Ozuna = Atl
- Juan Yepez=StL
- Lane Thomas = Was
- Oscar Colas=CWS
- Eduardo Olivares=KC
- Manuel Margot=TB
- Harrison Bader = NYY
- Trent Grisham = SD
- Andrew McCutchen = Well
- Oswaldo Cabrera = NYY
- Bubba Thompson=Tex
- Kike Hernandez=Bos
- Randal Grichuk=Colonel
- Michael Brantley=Hou
- A.J. Pollock=Mar
- Mike Yastrzemski = SF
- T. J. Friedl = Cin
- Jose Siri=TB
- Matt Vierling=Dert
- Dylan Carlson=StL
- Mark Canha = NYM
- Joseph Lowe=TB
- Harold Ramirez=TB
- LaMonte Wade Jr. = SF
- Alek Thomas = Ari
- Salt Frelick=Thousand
- Nolan Jones=Col.
Team of the week name
LuxYuli Tax
Posted by Ralph LaNoce
