Fantasy baseball owners need to beware of overrated outfielders –

March Madness is always full of surprises, like Farleigh Dickinson defeating Purdue to become the second No. 16 seed to topple a No. 1 seed.

Or Princeton beating No. 2 Arizona, marking the third straight year that a No. 15 seed has won a first-round matchup.

It really is crazy!

But March Madness isn’t just relegated to college basketball. There’s a lot of craziness going on in fantasy baseball drafts.

The madness begins with Michael Harris, who was the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year after hitting 19 home runs with 64 RBI, 75 runs scored, 20 stolen bases and a .297/.339/.514 slash line. in 114 games for the Braves.

With a stat line like that, there’s bound to be excitement, right?

Well, maybe too much emotion.

Harris may not live up to the expectations he achieved during his rookie year.
AP Photo/Nick Wass, File

According to Fantasy Alarm, Harris’ average draft position is 37.87, but there are sites that have their ADP as high as 24.8 (Underdog Fantasy) or 26.1 (RealTime Fantasy). He is at 33.3 on Yahoo.

That means that, in some cases, Harris is being drafted as a top 10 outfielder or top 25 overall.

That’s a steep price for a gamer who has played just 114 games. There’s no discussing the tools he brings to the table (and he really does bring a complete tool bag), but there are concerns that make Roto Rage believe that Harris will be very good, but ultimately won’t live up to that lofty status. draft.

Among players with a minimum of 400 plate appearances, Harris’ 41.7 percent chase rate (swings to pitches outside the strike zone) was the 12th-worst in the majors. That helped his 4.8 percent walk rate, which was 18th worst in the league, and his 24.3 percent strikeout rate (23rd worst in the National League).

Harris hit .297, but his too-high .361 BABIP indicates luck was on his side, and it’s hard to believe that number is tenable, especially when his expected batting average (.268) was nearly 30 points lower than his true average and incredible ground ball rate of 56.2 was the fourth-highest in the majors.

Oh, his expected slugging percentage (.460) was more than 50 points lower than his actual slugging percentage of .514. Those numbers scream one thing: regression.

What about Harris’ struggles against left-handed pitching?

In 135 plate appearances against lefties last season, he hit .238 with 13 runs, 41 strikeouts (30.4 percent strikeout rate), a .649 OPS and just seven walks.

Teoscar Hernandez #35 of the Seattle Mariners reacts after an RBI double by Mike Ford #20 during the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres in a spring training game at Peoria Stadium on February 24, 2023 in Peoria, Arizona.
Hernández joined the Mariners, which could mean a decline in his hitting.
Steph Chambers/Getty Images

He also had a .337 BABIP against lefties. That’s problematic.

The problem with Harris isn’t his potential or his talent, it’s his current price. It is too high. To get a good return on selecting him as a top 25 player, he has to duplicate his 2022 success (and then some), and that’s no easy task.

There are too many red flags to pay a premium price for an inexperienced player whose numbers are pointing to regression.

Roto Rage would rather target more proven outfielders, like Kyle Schwarber (39.69), Randy Arozarena (47.84) and Cedric Mullins (51.64).

Other gardeners to watch out for include:

Teoscar Hernandez (76.31) moves from hitter-friendly Toronto to pitcher’s paradise Seattle.

That’s not something fantasy managers should count as good fortune.

Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds (77.31) is a very good player in a bad situation. He just doesn’t have enough support in the Pirates’ lineup to give fantasy owners the numbers he’s capable of.

Atlanta Braves manager Ronald Acuna Jr. is greeted in the dugout after driving in a run during the sixth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Minnesota Twins in North Port, Fla., Saturday, March 4, 2023.
Acuña Jr. ranks at the top of fantasy baseball outfielders.
AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

It’ll be good, but it’s unlikely to be really great… unless they finally trade it off.

The Mets’ Starling Marte (92.29) is a frequently injured 34-year-old with declining sprint velocity who had offseason surgery and has missed 30 or more games in all but one season. since 2016. Do the math.

Washington’s Joey Meneses (182.71) has the kind of Frank Schwindel (2021 Cubs-esque) vibes: a career minor leaguer who got a chance to play on a team going nowhere and became into a fantasy hero at the end of the season.

He has a powerful swing, but the small sample size plus his .371 BABIP raises questions.

Cleveland’s Oscar González (188.23) hit .296 with 11 home runs, 43 RBIs, 39 runs scored and a .789 OPS in 91 games.

It was a solid debut, but his 3.4 percent walk rate was in the bottom 1 percent in the league (as was his 48.3 percent chase rate) and his .345 BABIP is a good indication of his that a regression is coming.


  1. Ronald Acuna Jr.=Atl
  2. Aaron Judge = NYY
  3. Julio Rodriguez=Mar
  4. Juan Soto=SD
  5. Kyle Tucker=Hou
  6. Mookie Betts=LAD
  7. Mike Trout = LAA
  8. Yordan Alvarez = Hou
  9. Fernando Tatis Jr.=SD
  10. Luis Roberto = CWS
  11. Randy Arozarena=TB
  12. Kyle Schwarber = fi
  13. Cedric Mullins=Bal
  14. Adolis Garcia=Tex
  15. Eloy Jimenez=CWS
  16. Daulton Varsho=Tor
  17. Michael Harris II=Atl
  18. Corbin Caroll = Ari
  19. George Springer=Tor
  20. Byron Buxton=Min
  21. Bryan Reynolds = hole
  22. Starling Mars = NYM
  23. Steven Kwan = Cle
  24. Tyler O’Neill=StL
  25. Teoscar Hernandez=Mar
  26. Seiya Suzuku=ChC
  27. Antonio Santander = Bal
  28. Kris Bryant=Colonel
  29. Nick Castellanos=Phi
  30. Christian Yelich=Thousand
  31. Giancarlo Stanton=New York
  32. Jake McCarthy=Ari
  33. Ian Happ=ChC
  34. Taylor Ward = LAA
  35. Andrew Vaughn=CWS
  36. Brandon Nimmo = NYM
  37. Mitch Haniger = SF
  38. Hunter Renfroe = LAA
  39. MJ Melendez=KC
  40. Jeff McNeil = NYM
  41. Lars Nootbaar=StL
  42. Jordan Walker = StL
  43. Alex Executioner=Bos
  44. Masataka Yoshida=Bos
  45. Cody Bellinger=ChC
  46. Oscar Gonzalez = Cle
  47. Riley Greene=Det
  48. Ramon Laureano=Roble
  49. Andrés Benintendi=CWS
  50. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. = Ari
  51. Wil Myers = Cin
  52. Bryan De La Cruz = Mia
  53. Seth Brown = Oak
  54. Jarred Kelenic=Mar
  55. Esteury Ruiz=Oak
  56. White Merrifield = Tor
  57. Jorge Soler=Mine
  58. Adam Duvall=Bos
  59. Austin Meadows=Det
  60. Michael Conforto = SF
  61. Alex Kiriloff=Min.
  62. Garrett Mitchell = thousand
  63. Jesse Winker = thousand
  64. Joc Pederson=SF
  65. Trey Mancini=ChC
  66. Brendan Donovan=StL
  67. Austin Hays=Bal
  68. Jake Fraley = Cin
  69. Brandon Marsh = Phi
  70. Chris Taylor = boy
  71. Charlie Blackmon=Colonel
  72. Avisaíl García = Mia
  73. Max Kepler=Min.
  74. Marcell Ozuna = Atl
  75. Juan Yepez=StL
  76. Lane Thomas = Was
  77. Oscar Colas=CWS
  78. Eduardo Olivares=KC
  79. Manuel Margot=TB
  80. Harrison Bader = NYY
  81. Trent Grisham = SD
  82. Andrew McCutchen = Well
  83. Oswaldo Cabrera = NYY
  84. Bubba Thompson=Tex
  85. Kike Hernandez=Bos
  86. Randal Grichuk=Colonel
  87. Michael Brantley=Hou
  88. A.J. Pollock=Mar
  89. Mike Yastrzemski = SF
  90. T. J. Friedl = Cin
  91. Jose Siri=TB
  92. Matt Vierling=Dert
  93. Dylan Carlson=StL
  94. Mark Canha = NYM
  95. Joseph Lowe=TB
  96. Harold Ramirez=TB
  97. LaMonte Wade Jr. = SF
  98. Alek Thomas = Ari
  99. Salt Frelick=Thousand
  100. Nolan Jones=Col.

Team of the week name

LuxYuli Tax

Posted by Ralph LaNoce

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